BOP 413.9, Cost Analysis Requirements Description (Redline)
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Section 1
BUSINESS OPERATING PROCEDURE
Approved: 1-22-18
COST ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS
DESCRIPTION
NATIONAL NUCLEAR SECURITY ADMINISTRATION
Office of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation
CONTROLLED DOCUMENT OFFICE OF PRIMARY INTEREST (OPI):
AVAILABLE ONLINE AT: Office of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation
https://nnsaportal.energy.gov/intranet/na-mb/na-mb-20/pages/nnsa-policy.aspx
printed copies are uncontrolled
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COST ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS DESCRIPTION
1. PURPOSE. This Business Operating Procedure (BOP) reflects the requirements,
responsibilities, and expectations relating to the Cost Analysis Requirements Description
(CARD) for program and projects being executed by the National Nuclear Security
Administration (NNSA).
2. CANCELLATION. None.
3. APPLICABILITY.
a. Federal. This applies to all NNSA elements.
b. Contractors. While this BOP does not apply to contractors, these principles
should be used in work authorizations to streamline reconciliation of estimates.
c. Equivalency. In accordance with the responsibilities and authorities assigned by
Executive Order 12344, codified at 50 United States Code (U.S.C.) sections 2406
and 2511, and to ensure consistency through the joint Navy/DOE Naval Nuclear
Propulsion Program, the Deputy Administrator for Naval Reactors (Director) will
implement and oversee requirements and practices pertaining to this Directive for
activities under the Director's cognizance, as deemed appropriate.
4. SUMMARY OF CHANGES. Not applicable.
5. BACKGROUND. The CARD is a complete depiction of the system at a level of detail
appropriate for estimating costs. It describes the key technical, programmatic, and
operational characteristics of an acquisition program, and provides supporting data
sources and material. It is intended to define the program to a sufficient level of detail
such that no confusion exists between the many parties who may be concerned with
estimating the program’s cost. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) cost
estimating and assessment guide affirms that:
key to developing a credible estimate is having an adequate understanding of the
acquisition program, acquisition strategy, technical definition, characteristics,
system design features, and technologies to be included in its design. The cost
estimator can use this information to identify the technical and program
parameters that will bind the cost estimate. The amount of information gathered
directly affects the overall quality and flexibility of the estimate.
6. REQUIREMENTS. This BOP applies to programs which require an Independent Cost
Estimate (ICE) or Independent Cost Review (ICR) conducted by CEPE as defined in
NNSA Policy NAP-413.328A Responsibilities for Independent Cost Estimates.
a. The CARD is composed of a workbook template, data sources, and supporting
material. The CARD workbook template contains explanatory notes for both
individual data elements and tailoring methods to accommodate the uniqueness of
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each program. Submissions must be tailored based on level of detail available at
the time of the particular CARD submission.
b. The CARD must be submitted by the Federal Program Manager (FPM). The draft
CARD must be prepared to support the first ICE or ICR kickoff meeting and
Section 2
delivered to the Director of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation (CEPE) for
review and feedback. Final CARDs for programs must be approved by the FPM
(or designated Program Office Representative) and the Director of CEPE, and
signed by the FPM.
(1) A complete CARD is required in support of ICEs and ICRs (see Appendix
1, Cost Analysis Requirements Description Process).
(2) For ongoing programs having an existing CARD, updates are required
prior to milestones in support of ICEs and ICRs (see Appendix 1, Cost
Analysis Requirements Description Process). The updated CARD will
reflect substantial changes to the program.
c. The FPM must submit the CARD with the appropriate security classification
reflective of the consolidated program data. Classified sections should be
submitted as an attachment to the CARD. If the consolidated information for the
other sections raises the CARD above unclassified, two versions of the CARD are
requested: a complete CARD at the appropriate security level and an unclassified
version for submission to the Director of CEPE for retention and historical data.
d. All unclassified CARDs submitted to CEPE must be sent by unclassified email to
the appropriate point(s) of contact. All CARDs classified secret, and all classified
CARDs and applications must be submitted to CEPE by email through the
appropriate classified network to the appropriate point(s) of contact.
e. Level of Detail:
(1) The level of detail provided in the CARD depends on the maturity of the
program. The CARD workbook template for a program early in the life-
cycle process may contain numerous gaps in comparison to a program
further along in the program life cycle. These gaps and any uncertainties
in the program must be acknowledged, and quantified to the maximum
extent possible. Tailoring of CARDs in support of ICEs or ICRs must be
approved by the Director of CEPE.
(2) For uncertainties in program concepts, nominal assumptions must be
specified for cost-estimating purposes. For example, if there is a technical
requirement or schedule that is not yet determined, the CARD must
provide nominal, but specific, assumptions (including reasoning) about the
requirements or schedule.
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7. RESPONSIBILITIES.
a. Director of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation (CEPE):
(1) Provides CARD guidance and template;
(2) Maintains this BOP and establishes instructions; and
(3) Approves the CARD with the FPM (or designated Program Office
representative).
b. Federal Program Manager (FPM):
(1) Provides data and documentation in support offices and ICRs;
(2) Develops a CARD; and
(3) Approves the CARD with the Director of CEPE (or designated Program
Office representative approves with the Director of CEPE).
8. DEFINITIONS. See Appendix 3.
9. REFERENCES. See Appendix 5.
I 0. CONTACT. Director, Office of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation, 202-586-6910.
BY ORDER OF THE ADMINISTRATOR:
Appendixes:
I. Cost Analysis Requirements Description Process
2. Cost Analysis Requirements Description Content
3. Definitions
4. GAO 12-Step Process
5. References
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BOP -413.906.08 Appendix 1
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APPENDIX 1: COST ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS DESCRIPTION PROCESS
Figure 1: Timeline for the Preparation of the NNSA ICE/ICR
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Appendix 1
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Cost Analysis Requirements Description (CARD) Process:
Section 3
1. The Federal Program Manager (FPM) prepares and delivers the draft CARD to the Office
of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation (CEPE) no later than 180 days before the
program milestone for which a CEPE Independent Cost Estimate (ICE) or Independent
Cost Review (ICR) is required.
2. No later than 45 days after receipt of the draft CARD (usually 135 days before the
program milestone), CEPE provides feedback informing the FPM that the CARD is
sufficiently or insufficiently developed to continue with preparation of the cost estimates.
3. A final copy of the CARD must be provided to CEPE by the FPM at least 90 days before
the scheduled program milestone and placed into the electronic CEPE Data Library. The
Director of CEPE and the FPM must approve the final CARD.
4. CEPE uses the information submitted to the CEPE Data Library when preparing its
annual report to Congress. The annual report summarizes the cost estimation and
analysis activities of NNSA during the previous year and assesses the progress of NNSA
in improving the accuracy of its cost estimates and analyses.
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Appendix 2
AP2-1
APPENDIX 2: COST ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS DESCRIPTION (CARD)
CONTENT
The CARD content covers key technical, programmatic, and operational characteristics in Major
Atomic Energy Defense Acquisition (MAEDA) and acquisition programs. Section 1 covers all
MAEDA and acquisition programs. Section 2 covers additional content for Life Extension
Programs (LEPs) and Alterations (Alts).
1. MAEDA AND ACQUISITION PROGRAMS.
a. System Overview. This section provides concise background information about
the system, including a system description, an explanation of the missions that the
system will perform, and a summary of the system program history and
predecessor systems (if applicable). It should include a discussion of any internal
research and development activities performed by the contractor(s) and the
associated cost(s) of the effort(s). A diagram or picture of the system should be
provided.
b. Interfaces with Other Systems. This section describes the relationships between
the system and other systems within and outside NNSA, including the nature and
number of any interfaces, detail of joint development efforts, and leveraging of
other programs that will be required. It should also describe any associated
modifications to the project, hardware, or software of the other systems. It must
clearly identify the interface boundaries to other systems, programs, and
subprograms.
c. System Performance Parameters and Characteristics. This section provides a
summary of the approved key performance parameters, e.g., military capabilities,
size, speed, energy and water efficiency, and weight.
d. Program Milestone Schedule or Integrated Master Schedule. This section
provides a summary of the integrated master schedule including a figure or
diagram that displays when major work efforts will support tasks and events for
each phase over the program life cycle. This section should include the baseline
schedule from the most recent milestone phase as well as the most recent
schedule. Use of a standard program briefing chart is encouraged. In addition,
this section should provide a discussion that explains the critical paths for the
program schedule.
e. Product Team Strategy and Structure. This section provides a summary of the
team organizational structure which outlines the hierarchal structure and team
Section 4
member’s responsibilities in the design and production of the product. This
section also lists specific responsibilities within the product team based on
program requirements. A product team organizational chart or equivalent table
should be provided with the outlined responsibilities.
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f. Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). This section provides a WBS used by the
Federal Program Office to manage the program.
g. Quantity Requirements. Time-phased system quantities across all life-cycle
phases by major item of equipment are to be identified in the workbook’s
quantities spreadsheet.
h. Technologies. This section identifies new technologies that the system will
depend on to meet key performance parameters or other design goals. This
section must summarize the current and projected technology readiness levels of
each critical and noncritical technology as presented in the technology readiness
assessment. This section identifies any critical and noncritical technologies that
will not be considered mature at the anticipated time of the approval and
summarize the associated technology maturation plan.
i. Assessment of Program Risks and Risk Mitigation Measures. This section
provides full descriptions of all the risks associated with the program and provides
documentation via the Active Risk Management (ARM) database or a similar
type of database. If an ARM database or other similar database is used, an export
of the entire risk management database for the program is required and should be
machine-readable in a common electronic format as specified by CEPE. In
addition, this section should summarize the program’s risk mitigation strategies
and risk monitoring approaches.
j. Other Program Money (OPM). This section describes interfaces where leveraging
is required or dependencies exist, which is collectively termed OPM projects or
campaigns. A general description of the interface requirements, success criteria,
milestone dates, assumptions, constraints, risks, and funding profile should be
provided. A copy of any Interface Requirements Agreement (IRA) should be
included.
k. Staffing Requirements. This section includes actual and forecasted staffing
requirements time-phased across the period of performance for the program.
Staffing plans will be presented in terms of full-time equivalents (FTEs) or similar
workload equivalent. Staffing data will include updated actual and forecasted
FTEs by Management and Operating (M&O), control account (CA), labor
category, and fiscal year based on data availability. If applicable, actual and
forecasted FTEs will be provided before the establishment of a performance
measurement baseline (PMB) for mature programs that are creating the initial
CARD later in the life-cycle process.
l. Test and Evaluation. This section summarizes all local systems-level
developmental and operational tests. The number, type, location, and expected
duration of the tests should be identified, along with the organizations that will
conduct the test programs. This section should describe any contingency or
margin for test failures in the program test and evaluation plan in the notes
section. A list of statements of capabilities and memorandums of understanding
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between the program and the test communities should be identified in the
supporting material and documentation section.
Section 5
m. Infrastructure Data. This section describes site facilities and equipment required
to support the program at each M&O site that are unique to the program or are
being paid for by the program as a first user. This includes new facility
construction, facility retrofit, and major equipment purchases. Facilities and
equipment being funded through campaigns, research, development, test and
evaluation (RDT&E); infrastructure and operations (I&O); or similar should be
included and described in the OPM section.
n. Tooling. This section describes the special tooling equipment to acquire or make
available in order to support the production, diagnosis, repair, rebuild, and re-
acceptance of NNSA components and final assembly unique to the program.
o. Software Description and Sizing Information Section. This section describes each
computer software configuration item critical to the program which has the
potential to drive or impact either cost or schedule or both. This can include, but
is not limited to, system applications, support software, and firmware. Each
configuration item should be described in enough detail to understand what
functions will be accomplished by commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or
government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) software, and which functions will require
separate software development (including interface to other software and legacy
systems). For every software product, an explanation of what contractual terms
and conditions (e.g., data rights, determination of user-base, software maintenance
costs) the government will be required to produce to sustain the system through
the life cycle.
p. Program Funding Profile. This section describes the program funding profile and
financial resources across the program life cycle including procurement, RDT&E,
and OPM.
2. ADDITIONAL CONTENT COVERING LEPS AND ALTS.
a. Manufacturer Description. This section provides the top-level description of the
manufacturer component, including parameters by major component,
subassembly, subcomponent, by production and design agencies, and WBS
number. Tabular presentation of data is encouraged.
b. Testers. This section provides the top-level description of testers used for the
program, including parameters by tester identification, component, and M&O
production and design agencies, and WBS number. Tabular presentation of data
is encouraged.
c. Major Component Design. This section summarizes the major components of the
system and identifies the percentage of reuse, redesign, and remanufacture for
each component.
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3. TRACK TO PRIOR CARD.
The Federal Program Manager will provide updates to the CARD prior to milestones in
support of Independent Cost Estimates and Independent Cost Reviews, which summarize
significant changes from the previous CARD. The CARD must include changes in
system performance or design, program schedule, technical baseline changes,
programmatic, and all other aspects presented in Appendix 2, Cost Analysis
Requirements Description Guidance.
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Appendix 3
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APPENDIX 3: DEFINITIONS
a. Acquisition Program – A defined duration, funded effort from conceptualization,
initiation, design, development, test, contracting, production, deployment, logistics
support, modification, and disposal to provide a new, improved, or continuing weapons
and weapons systems or other product to satisfy NNSA mission requirements or
Section 6
capability gaps, intended for use in, or in support of, NNSA missions.
b. Baseline – A quantitative definition of cost, schedule, and technical performance that
serves as a base or standard for measurement and control during the performance of an
effort; the established plan against which the status of resources and the effort of the
overall program, field program(s), project(s), task(s), or subtask(s) are measured,
assessed, and controlled. Once established, baselines are subject to change control
discipline.
c. Cost Estimating Uncertainty – The uncertainty reflects one's confidence in the point
estimate. Cost estimating uncertainty arises from the inaccuracies inherent in the cost
estimating methodologies.
d. Cost Estimating Risk (CER) – The risk reflects one's confidence in the input parameters
used to develop a cost estimate. Cost-estimating risk arises from the inaccuracies
inherent in the programmatic assumptions or technical data used as inputs to CERs.
e. Cost Analysis Requirements Description (CARD) – A description of the relevant features
of the acquisition program or project and of the system itself. It is the common
description of the technical and programmatic features of the program that is used by the
teams when preparing the ICE or program office cost estimates. It is intended to define
the program to a sufficient level of detail such that no confusion exists between the many
parties who may be concerned with estimating the program’s cost.
f. Earned Value Management (EVM) – A project performance method that uses an
integrated set of performance measurements (e.g., scope, cost, and schedule) to assess
and measure project performance and progress, and estimate cost and schedule impacts at
completion.
g. Federal Program Manager (FPM) – An individual in an organizational element
responsible for managing a program and its assigned projects. The FPM ensures that all
the projects are properly phased, funded over time, and that each project manager is
meeting assigned key milestones. FPMs are the project manager's advocate, who ensure
proper resourcing, facilitate the execution process, and predict programmatic risks.
FPMs also put mitigation strategies in place so that projects are not affected by those
risks.
h. Independent Cost Estimate (ICE) – A cost estimate prepared by an organization
independent from the government line manager’s authority, and the contractor
organization responsible for the project or program, using the same detailed technical and
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procurement information to develop the program or project estimate in accordance with
Government Accountability Office (GAO) best practices.
i. Independent Cost Review (ICR) – An evaluation of a program’s or project’s cost estimate
that examines the reasonableness of the estimate quality, assumptions, and risks, also
prepared by an organization independent from the government line manager’s authority
and the contractor organization responsible for the project or program.
j. Life-Cycle Cost Estimate (LCCE) – The cost to the government of acquisition and
sustainment of a system over its useful life. It includes the cost of development,
acquisition, operations, and support (to include manpower) and, where applicable,
disposal. For defense systems, LCCE is also called Total Ownership Cost (TOC).
k. Major Atomic Energy Defense Acquisition (MAEDA) Program – An atomic energy
Section 7
defense acquisition program of which the total project cost is more than $500 million or
the total lifetime cost is more than $1 billion. The term major atomic energy defense
acquisition program does not include a project covered by DOE Order 413.3B, Program
and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets (or a successor order) for
the acquisition of capital assets for atomic energy defense activities.
l. Phase 6.X Process – Provides the framework for nuclear weapons activities (including
life extension programs), such as routine maintenance, stockpile evaluation, surveillance,
baselining, and annual certification.
m. Program Office – Program Office is the organization that is led by the Federal Program
Manager (FPM) who is directly responsible for managing and executing all
programmatic activities on a regular basis, including cost, schedule, risk, and
requirements activities.
n. Total Lifetime Cost (TLC) – Is equivalent to the life-cycle cost for projects and
programs. The TLC includes the costs of conceptualization, initiation, design,
development, test, contracting, production, deployment, logistics support, modification,
and disposal.
o. Total Program Cost (TPC) – For programs following the 6.X Process, the TPC covers all
costs from Phase 6.1 through Phase 6.6. For other acquisition programs, the TPC is the
cost of conceptualization, initiation, design, development, test, contracting, and
production prior to operation and disposal.
p. Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) – A numeric structure incorporating logic to capture
scope, cost, and schedule of work. The WBS mentioned in this document will be
standardized and common across the nuclear security enterprise and will include Work
for Others and other Department of Energy programs to identify total site costs and
scope. A program WBS provides a framework for program and technical planning, cost
estimating, resource allocations, performance measurements, and status reporting. The
WBS should define the total system to be developed or produced; display the total system
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as a product-oriented family tree composed of hardware, software, services, data, and
facilities; and relate the elements of work to each other and to the end product.
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Appendix 4
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APPENDIX 4: GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE (GAO) 12 STEP
PROCESS
GAO’s 12 Steps of a High Quality Cost Estimating Process
The GAO Cost Estimating Process consists of 12 steps. Each step builds upon each other to
develop a comprehensive and complete cost estimate. Each of the 12 steps is important for
ensuring that high-quality cost estimates are developed and delivered in time to support
important decisions.
Step 1: Define estimate’s purpose
Determine estimate’s purpose, required level of detail, and overall scope; and
Determine who will receive the estimate.
Step 2: Develop estimating plan
Determine the cost estimating team and develop its master schedule;
Determine who will do the Independent Cost Estimate (ICE);
Outline the cost estimating approach; and
Develop the estimate timeline.
Step 3: Define program characteristics
In a technical baseline description document,
Identify the program’s purpose and its system and performance characteristics and
all system configurations;
Any technology implications;
Section 8
Its program acquisition schedule and acquisition strategy;
Its relationship to other existing systems, including predecessor or similar
legacy systems;
Support (manpower, training, etc.) and security needs and risk items;
System quantities for development, test, and production; and
Deployment and maintenance plans.
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Step 4: Determine estimating structure
Define a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and describe each element in a WBS
dictionary (a major automated information system may have only a cost element
structure);
Choose the best estimating method for each WBS element;
Identify potential cross-checks for likely cost and schedule drivers; and
Develop a cost-estimating checklist.
Step 5: Identify ground rules and assumptions
Clearly define what the estimate includes and excludes;
Identify global and program-specific assumptions, such as the estimate’s base
year, including time-phasing and life cycle;
Identify program schedule information by phase and program acquisition strategy;
Identify any schedule or budget constraints, inflation assumptions, and travel
costs;
Specify equipment the government is to furnish as well as the use of existing
facilities or new modification or development;
Identify prime contractor and major subcontractors;
Determine technology refresh cycles, technology assumptions, and new
technology to be developed;
Define commonality with legacy systems and assumed heritage savings; and
Describe effects of new ways of doing business.
Step 6: Obtain data
Create a data collection plan with emphasis on collecting current and relevant
technical, programmatic, cost, and risk data;
Investigate possible data sources;
Collect data and normalize them for cost accounting, inflation, learning, and
quantity adjustments;
Analyze the data for cost drivers, trends, and outliers and compare results against
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Appendix 4
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rules of thumb and standard factors derived from historical data;
Interview data sources and document all pertinent information, including an
assessment of data reliability and accuracy; and
Store data for future estimates.
Step 7: Develop point estimate and compare it to an ICE
Develop the cost model, estimating each WBS element, using the best
methodology from the data collected, and including all estimating assumptions;
Express costs in constant year dollars;
Time-phase the results by spreading costs in the years they are expected to occur,
based on the program schedule;
Sum the WBS elements to develop the overall point estimate;
Validate the estimate by looking for errors like double-counting and omitted
costs;
Compare estimate against the ICE and examine where and why there are
differences;
Perform cross-checks on cost drivers to see if results are similar; and
Update the model as more data becomes available or as changes occur, and
compare results against previous estimates.
Step 8: Conduct sensitivity analysis
Test the sensitivity of cost elements to changes in estimating input values and key
assumptions;
Identify effects on the overall estimate of changing the program schedule or
quantities; and
Determine which assumptions are key cost drivers and which cost elements are
affected most by changes.
Step 9: Conduct risk and uncertainty analysis
Determine and discuss with technical experts the level of cost, schedule, and
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technical risk associated with each WBS element;
Analyze each risk for its severity and probability;
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Develop minimum, most likely, and maximum ranges for each risk element;
Determine type of risk distributions and reason for their use;
Ensure that risks are correlated;
Use an acceptable statistical analysis method (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation) to
develop a confidence interval around the point estimate;
Identify the confidence level of the point estimate;
Identify the amount of contingency funding and add this to the point estimate to
determine the risk-adjusted cost estimate; and
Recommend that the project or program office develop a risk management plan to
track and mitigate risks.
Step 10: Document the estimate
Document all steps used to develop the estimate so that a cost analyst unfamiliar
with the program can recreate it quickly and produce the same result;
Document the purpose of the estimate, the team that prepared it, and who
approved the estimate and on what date;
Describe the program, its schedule, and the technical baseline used to create the
estimate;
Present the program’s time-phased life-cycle cost;
Discuss all ground rules and assumptions;
Include auditable and traceable data sources for each cost element and document
for all data sources how the data were normalized;
Describe in detail the estimating methodology and rationale used to derive each
WBS element’s cost (prefer more detail over less);
Describe the results of the risk, uncertainty, and sensitivity analyses and whether
any contingency funds were identified;
Document how the estimate compares to the funding profile; and
Track how this estimate compares to any previous estimates.
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Step 11: Present estimate to management for approval
Develop a briefing that presents the documented Life-Cycle Cost Estimate
(LCCE);
Include an explanation of the technical and programmatic baseline and any
uncertainties;
Compare the estimate to an ICE and explain any differences;
Compare the estimate (LCCE) or ICE to the budget with enough detail to easily
defend it by showing how it is accurate, complete, and definitive;
Focus in a logical manner on the largest cost elements and cost drivers;
Make the content clear and complete so that those who are unfamiliar with it can
easily comprehend the competence that underlies the estimate results;
Make backup slides available for more probing questions;
Act on and document feedback from management; and
Request acceptance of the estimate.
Step 12: Update the estimate to reflect actual costs and changes
Update the estimate to reflect changes in technical or program assumptions or
keep it current as the program passes through new phases or milestones;
Replace estimates with Earned Value Management (EVM), Estimate at
Completion (EAC), and independent EAC from the integrated EVM system;
Report progress on meeting cost and schedule estimates;
Perform a postmortem and document lessons learned for elements whose actual
costs or schedules differ from the estimate; and
Document all changes to the program and how they affect the cost estimate.
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BOP -413.906.08 Appendix 5
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APPENDIX 5: REFERENCES
a. Federal Laws and Regulations:
(1) 50 U.S.C. 2411, Director for Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation.
(2) 50 U.S.C. 2537, Selected Acquisition Reports and independent cost estimates and
reviews certain programs and facilities.
(3) 50 U.S.C. 2753, Notification of cost overruns for certain Department of Energy
projects.
b. Government Accountability Office:
GAO-09-3SP, GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, March 2009.
c. Nuclear Weapons Council:
Procedural Guideline for the Phase 6.X Process, dated 4-19-00.
d. DOE:
DOE Order 413.3B Chg 4, Program and Project Ma6nagement for the Acquisition of
Capital Assets, dated 10-13-17
e. NNSA:
(1) NAP -413.328A, Responsibilities for Independent Cost Estimates, dated 2-13-191-
10-17.
(2) BOP -413.306.03, Independent Cost Estimates Procedure, dated 02-27-14.